3/11/2019

3/11/2019 – Grant Velde    

The USDA reported the sale of 926 tmt 18/19 beans to China this morning. The March 8th WASDE report revealed ending corn stocks up 100 million bushels with exports down 75 million bushels. President Trump will release his 2020 budget today. In his budget, he predicts economic growth at 3.2% with the Feds at 2.3% growth. 2019 crop insurance base prices: Corn $4.00 vs $3.96 Last Year (LY) / Beans $9.54 vs $10.16 LY / HRS $5.77 vs $6.31 LY.                                                                                                                  

Safras said Brazil soybean harvest at 52% that is 6% ahead of the average and farmers are 43% sold 7% less than the average. Brazil safrinha (2nd crop) corn is currently in good shape but it is still early. The crucial part of the safrinha crop is in May when the rainy season ends. Trucks have started to move after massive back-ups of on the BR-163 (highway to the ports) because of poor road conditions. (muddy roads and flooding)     

In Argentina, early yields are good and running 125-200 bushels per acre with harvest less than 5% complete.    

On Monday the 11th: May 19 corn at 364.00 (resistance @ 372.50 and support @ 355.00) May 19 beans at 891.50 (resistance @ 911.00 and support @ 855.00) May 19 Minn. wheat at 554.25 (resistance @ 554.25 and support @ 548.00). Locally: corn basis narrowed and bean basis narrowed. FCE - Hanley Falls cash market: March 19 corn @ 3.29 cash (-.35 basis) / March 19 beans @ 8.01 cash (-.92 basis). Current futures spread: corn (May 19 to July 19 @ .09 1/2) and beans (May 19 to July 19 @ .14). FCE – Hanley Falls Oct. 19 corn $3.40 and Oct. 19 beans $8.36.

It has been reported that the US and China trade talks with President Trump and Xi on March 27th will not take place and will not meet unless there is a deal to sign. National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow is positive that a trade deal with China can be made in April. China is estimating their 2019 economic growth at 6%. (6% would be their slowest growth in 30 years)                                                                                                                                                    

 FCE Annual Meeting

    Friday, March 15

Serving – 4pm to 7pm

Guest speaker 6:30pm

   Meeting at 7:30pm