Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures settled the Monday session with most contracts 2 to 3 1/4 cents in the red. The USDA reported a private export sale of 130,000 MT of corn to South Korea for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system this morning. The Export Inspections report this morning showed 1.074 MMT in corn shipments during the week ending 2/1. That was 6.2% larger than the week prior but 4.4% lower than the same week in 2017. China is launching an anti-dumping probe into imports of US sorghum to the country. This may be in response to President Trump placing tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines last week. Chinese corn futures rallied sharply on the news.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.58 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 3 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, down 3 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents

Soybean futures saw a 6 to 9 cent drop in most contracts on Monday, with pressure from forecasts for improved rains in Argentina. Meal futures were down $4.40/ton, with nearby soy oil 1 point lower. A private export sale of 198,600 MT of soybeans to Unknown Destinations, was reported by the USDA this morning under the daily system. This morning’s USDA inspections report showed exports of 1.304 MMT of soybeans for the week ending Feb 1. That was 15.33% above last week but 20.98% behind this week last year. Stats Canada reported the country’s canola stocks on Dec 31 were 14.146 MMT. That was slightly lower than trade expectations of 14.3 MMT but 5.7% larger than December 2016 and still a new record high year end inventory.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.69 3/4, down 9 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.81 1/4, down 9 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $9.91 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $9.90 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $327.00, down $4.40,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.50, down $0.01

Wheat futures were 1 to 2 cents lower in most KC and MPLS front months, as CBT was down 6 to 7 cents. All wheat export inspections for the week that ended on 2/1 were 428,557 MT. That is down 26.32% from the previous week and lags the same week last year by 37.46%. This morning’s Stats Canada report showed all wheat stocks at 23.555 MMT on December 31. That was below most expectations and a 2.2% drop from a year ago. Of that total, durum wheat stocks were at 4.825 MMT, down 21.4% from last year. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, or the US with the tender closing Feb 11. In their weekend tender, Saudi Arabia purchased 739,000 MT of wheat with origins of EU, North and South America and Australia.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.40 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.61 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.01 3/4, down 2 cents

Live cattle futures settled with losses of 45 cents to $1.15 on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were 75 cents to $1.45 lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 9 cents on February 1 at $148.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 33 cents at $209.43, with Select boxes 71 cents higher at $204.16. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 114,000 head on Monday. That was down 4,000 from the previous week but 5,000 head larger than the same Monday last year. Most cash sales were reported at $126 last week. Show list collection appears to have been the main activity today.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $126.125, down $0.725,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $125.475, down $0.650,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $116.950, down $1.050,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.675, down $1.250

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.525, down $1.250

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.325, down $1.450

Lean hog futures ended the Monday session with most contracts lower, as nearby Feb was up 62.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 23 cents on February 1 at $74.10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.51 lower at $80.12 in the Monday PM report. Most cuts were higher, however the ham was down $1.63 and the belly $8.41 lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 5 cents to $72.63. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 466,000 on Monday. That is even with the previous week, and 29,000 head more than the same Monday last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $75.825, up $0.625,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $73.325, down $0.225

May 18 Hogs closed at $78.300, down $1.025

Cotton futures finished the day with 11 to 73 point losses in most contracts. Pressure was again from the US dollar, up 445 points on the day. Friday’s Cotton Classing report showed 427,966 bales of upland cotton were classed during the week of Feb 1, bringing the total this season to 17.889 million bales. The International Cotton Advisory Committee currently estimates that the world cotton production will total 25.51 MMT in 17/18, 2.53 MMT larger than 16/17. Ending stocks are only estimated to increase 0.14 MMT to 18.88 MMT. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP is 71.35 cents/lb, through Thursday. The Cotlook A index on February 1 was 89.05 cents/lb, up 120 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 76.570, down 73 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 77.900, down 71 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 78.840, down 62 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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