Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Wednesday session with fractional to 1 3/4 cent gains. Ethanol production for the week of Feb 2 averaged 1.057 million barrels per day in this morning’s EIA report. That is 17,000 bpd larger than the previous week. Stocks of ethanol were also reported higher at 23.489 million barrels, 444,000 barrels larger than the week prior. Analysts are expecting Thursday’s Export Sales report to show 1.3-1.8 MMT in old crop corn sales for the week that ended Feb 1, with 0-100,000 MT seen for new crop. The US officially exported 3.564 MMT of corn during December, down 9.47% from the December 2016 but 37.36% larger than November. On Wednesday, Taiwan purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for April-May delivery. South Korea also passed on offers for 165,000 MT of optional origin corn, noting too high of prices.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.65 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.72 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.80 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.87, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybean futures ended Wednesday with most contracts 3 1/4 to 5 cents in the red. Meal futures were up $3.70/ton, with nearby soy oil 60 points lower. Meal is higher on concerns that Argentine soy meal exports will be hurt by the dryness. The average trade guess ahead of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday is 400,000-700,000 MT for old crop soybean sales. This comes after a disappointing 359,014 MT was report in last week’s report. There are also 0-100,000 MT expected for new crop sales. Soy meal sales are seen at 150,000-450,000 MT, with 8,000-35,000 MT projected in soy oil sales. Data from Census shows US soybean exports during December at 6.452 MMT. That is 19.17% lower than Dec 2016 and lagged November 2017 by 28.57%. A Reuters survey shows traders expecting the final 17/18 Brazilian production number to total 112.6 MMT, up from 110.2 MMT in January.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.83, down 3 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.94 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.04, down 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.05 3/4, down 4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $335.40, up $3.70

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.56, down $0.60

Wheat futures saw sharp gains of 12 to 14 1/4 cents in most CNT and KC contracts on Wednesday. MPLS was 4 to 6 cents higher on the day. Forecasts for continued dryness in the Southern Plains are providing support. All wheat export sales are expected to be tallied at 200,000-500,000 MT in tomorrow’s USDA report. During December, the US exported 2.148 MMT of wheat. That was 2.36% below last year but 53.81% larger than November. Russian customs data shows that 33.026 MMT of wheat was exported during 2017, a jump of 30.4% from 2016.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.60 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.81, up 12 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.12 1/4, up 4 cents

Live cattle futures settled the day with the front months steady to 60 cents lower and back months higher. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed with nearby March 42.5 cents in the red. The CME feeder cattle index was up 15 cents on February 6 at $148.10. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 94 cents at $209.37, with Select boxes 41 cents higher at $203.14. Estimated FI week to date cattle slaughter was 346,000 head through Wednesday. That was down 5,000 from the previous week but 11,000 head larger than the same week last year. This morning’s FCE online auction saw 148 of the 829 head sold at an average price of $126. US export data shows 260.83 million pounds of beef was exported during December. That was slightly larger than November and the fifth straight monthly record, 2.5% above December 2016. Total exports in 2017 were 2.862 billion pounds, an all time yearly record and up 12.2% from 2016.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $125.600, down $0.025,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $123.975, down $0.600,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $115.725, down $0.100,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.300, down $0.425

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.350, down $0.075

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.350, up $0.225

Lean hog futures finished the Wednesday session with most contracts 32.5 cents to $2.20 lower. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 5 was at $74.84, up 36 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 89 cents lower at $77.34 in the Wednesday PM report. The ham was $2.34 in the red, with the belly the only other cut lower, down $4.40. The national base hog weighted average price was down $1.45 at $71.15 this afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1,393,000 through Wednesday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week and 72,000 head more than the same time last year. Exports of pork during December totaled 514.317 million pounds, a record for that month but 3.9% lower than November. During 2017, the US shipped 5.632 billion pounds of pork, up 5.9% from 2016 and an all time yearly record.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $73.850, down $0.900,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $69.225, down $2.200

May 18 Hogs are at $75.100, down $2.000

Cotton futures were mixed on Wednesday with front months 6 to 23 points lower and deferred contracts steady to 21 points in the green. The US dollar was 751 points higher on the day. Trade date from the US Census shows 304,531 MT of US cotton was exported during December. That was 8.23% larger than a year ago and 92.42% above November. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP, currently at 71.35 cents/lb, will be updated on Thursday afternoon. The Cotlook A index on February 6 was 87.20 cents/lb, down 90 points from the previous day. Online cash sales reported on the Seam were shown at 7,640 bales, with price averaging 70.69 cents/lb, down 20 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 75.96, down 23 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 77.29, down 9 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 78.31, down 6 points

Oct 18 Cotton is at 75.780, unch,

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.