Trade Tariffs in Focus

March 8, 2018

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher after the White House appears to be softening its position ontrade tariffs, even before an executive order is signed by President Donald Trump. Yesterday an advisor to President Trump said Mexico and Canada would be initially excluded from the proposed tariffs.

The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits increased last week from the lowest level since 1969.

Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 231,000 in the week ended March 3, when economists expected 220,000 new claims.

In spite of the recent correction, I am not seeing the beginning of any new long term bear market for stock index futures.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency advanced when the European Central Bank dropped a long standing promise at its policy meeting today to increase bond purchases if needed. This is viewed as a small step towards taking the euro zone economy off its extended stimulus program.

However, these gains were given back when ECB President Mario Draghi at his press conference made comments that were slightly dovish on balance.

German factory order declined 3.9% in January, but were still up 8.2% on the year.

I continue to expect the double top resistance at the 1.2579 area in the March euro currency to be taken out.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The probability of a fed funds rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committees March 21 policy meeting is 86%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

The main trend for the entire interest rate futures complex is lower.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures are likely to breakout to the downside from the triangle congestion pattern.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 18 S&P 500

Support 2715.00 Resistance 2745.00

March 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 89.320 Resistance 89.680

March 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.23620 Resistance 1.24660

March 18 Japanese Yen

Support .94140 Resistance .94570

March 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .77110 Resistance .77830

March 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7785 Resistance .7839

June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 142^28 Resistance 143^20

April 18 Gold

Support 1321.0Resistance 1335.0

May 18 Copper

Support 3.0800 Resistance 3.1400

April 18 Crude Oil

Support 60.71 Resistance 61.76

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.