Softs Report 02/11/19

DJ FAO Food Price Index Rose in January
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in January, climbing across most categories, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index was up 1.8% from its December level and some 2.2% below the level from the same month last year, the organization said.
Dairy prices rose 7.2%, while meat prices were roughly unchanged from their December price. Vegetable oils rose 4.3% on month after a protracted fall.
Cereal prices ticked up on month, and were 7.3% on year. Prices of most cereals, apart from rice, kept prices supported, with adverse weather conditions in South America a factor.
Sugar prices rose 2.4% on month, rallying with rising oil prices and a firmer Brazilian real.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week and trends are sideways to down on the daily and the weekly charts. The USDA reports on Friday gave no reason to look for big rallies at this time. USDA cut US and world production. It also trimmed US domestic use and domestic use in world markets. The result was a slight reduction in US ending stocks estimates, but increased world ending stocks estimates. The weekly export sales reports have started to show improved demand for US Cotton, but USDA left export demand unchanged as it waits for the data from the reports for January. It should be caught up on the weekly reports by February 22. There had been talk of less production from exporter countries like India, but USDA did not reflect these losses in its tables last week. Indian and Pakistani sources will continue to insist that production is less than projected by USDA. Cotton futures will have to look for news to cause rallies at this time. Supplies are there, so demand will have to improve as USDA releases more export sales reports in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get episodes of precipitation early this week and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.98 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 127,446 bales, from 127,446 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7220, 7040, and 6050 March. Support is at 7220, 7200, and 7160 March, with resistance of 7310, 7410, and 7480 March.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Feb 8
Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2016-18
=========================================================================
Type Yield Production 1/
And ————————————————————-
State
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
=========================================================================
—— Pounds —— —– 1,000 Bales 2/ —–
Upland
U.S. 855 895 821 16,601.0 20,223.0 17,596.0
Amer-Pima
U.S. 1,454 1,341 1,540 568.9 699.5 794.0
All
U.S. 867 905 838 17,169.9 20,922.5 18,390.0
=========================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 2016-18
=========================================================================
Type Area Planted Area Harvested
and ————————————————————-
State
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
=========================================================================
————– 1,000 Acres ————–
Upland
U.S. 9,879.0 12,465.0 13,850.0 9,320.0 10,850.0 10,283.0
Amer-Pima
U.S. 194.5 252.5 249.0 187.8 250.4 247.5
All
U.S. 10,073.5 12,717.5 14,099.0 9,507.8 11,100.4 10,530.5
================================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Feb 8
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
==============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
==============================================================================
2018/19 (Projected)
World
Dec 80.45 118.74 41.71 125.63 41.73 0.35 73.19
Feb 81.05 118.45 42.31 123.64 42.32 0.36 75.50
United States
Dec 4.30 18.59 0.01 3.30 15.00 0.19 4.40
Feb 4.30 18.39 0.01 3.20 15.00 0.20 4.30
Total foreign
Dec 76.15 100.15 41.71 122.33 26.73 0.16 68.79
Feb 76.75 100.06 42.30 120.44 27.32 0.16 71.20
Major exporters
Dec 26.15 54.91 2.32 34.30 22.57 0.02 26.50
Feb 26.75 54.77 2.35 33.80 23.22 0.02 26.83
Major exporters
Dec 47.91 42.23 36.80 83.94 2.84 0.14 40.02
Feb 47.90 42.25 37.36 82.55 2.74 0.14 42.09
==============================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Feb 8
U.S.Cotton Supply and Use
===================================================================
Item 2017/18 2018/19
prev Feb 8 prev Feb 8
===================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 12.61 12.72 14.04 14.10
Harvested 11.10 11.10 10.37 10.53
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 905 905 860 838
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 2.75 2.75 4.30 4.30
Production 20.92 20.92 18.59 18.39
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 23.68 23.68 22.89 22.70
Domestic use 3.23 3.23 3.30 3.20
Exports 15.85 15.85 15.00 15.00
Use, total 19.07 19.07 18.30 18.20
Unaccounted 0.30 0.30 0.19 0.20
Ending stocks 4.30 4.30 4.40 4.30
Avg. farm price 68.60 68.60 71.00 – 77.00 71.00 – 73.00
===================================================================

DJ USDA Volume of Cotton Classed Report – Feb 8
Data quoted in bales for week ending Feb 7. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA

Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 47,396 3,999,697 Southwest 195,110 6,978,431
NC 2,610 701,293 Okla 43,485 458,478
SC 5,856 356,774 Texas 138,186 6,426,907
Ga 29,257 1,889,246 Kansas 13,439 93,046
Ala 7,980 787,587
Fla 1,693 81,461 Far West 26,565 531,578
Va* – 183,336 NM* – 33,584
Ariz 22,031 324,301
Delta 16,222 4,531,158 Calif 4,534 173,693
Miss 7,071 1,378,295
Tenn – 761,189 Pima 26,597 647,933
Mo* – 754,864 Other 0 0
Ark 8,436 1,222,944 Total US 311,890 16,688,797
La 715 413,866 pct tenderable 49.3 65.4

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 281,393
: Positions :
: 34,929 47,331 69,064 72,476 137,318 89,538 13,587 266,006 267,299: 15,387 14,094
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 12,558) :
: 1,337 5,421 8,162 6,194 -1,585 -4,272 820 11,420 12,817: 1,138 -259
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 16.8 24.5 25.8 48.8 31.8 4.8 94.5 95.0: 5.5 5.0
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 84 88 60 60 44 20 230 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on Friday, but lower for the week. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts. USDA said that Florida Oranges production is 77 million boxes and that US production is 128.6 million boxes. Both estimates are significantly higher than a year ago and reflect a remarkable recovery from the storm damaged crops harvested last year. The market has absorbed speculative long liquidation and producer selling through the Winter as no freeze has developed, and futures can now move seasonally higher. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. The fruit is abundant, but arrivals to packing houses and processors are reported behind last year. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 124.00, and 126.00 March.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits-Feb 8
Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and
United States, Forecasted Feb 1, 2019
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
===============================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized production
Boxes 1/ Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ============================================================
2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19
===============================================================================
=== 1,000 Boxes === ==== 1,000 Tons ===
===============================================================================
Oranges
California, all 45,400 49,000 1,816 1,960
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 35,900 40,000 1,436 1,600
Valencia 9,500 9,000 380 360
Florida, all 44,950 77,000 2,023 3,465
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 18,950 32,000 853 1,440
Valencia 26,000 45,000 1,170 2,025
Texas, all 1,880 2,600 80 111
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 1,530 2,000 65 85
Valencia 350 600 15 26
United States, all 92,230 128,600 3,919 5,536
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ 56,380 74,000 2,354 3,125
Valencia 35,850 54,600 1,565 2,411
Grapefruit
California 4,000 4,000 160 160
Florida, all 3,880 6,200 165 264
Red 3,180 5,200 135 221
White 700 1,000 30 43
Texas 4,800 6,300 192 252
United States 12,680 16,500 517 676
Tangerines and mandarins 4/
California 19,200 23,000 768 920
Florida 750 1,000 36 48
United States 19,950 24,000 804 968
Lemons
Arizona 1,000 1,400 40 56
California 21,200 20,000 848 800
United States 22,200 21,400 888 856
=============================================================================
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and
mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 8, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,225 :
: Positions :
: 13,042 7,378 1,715 0 0 691 7,844 309 806 1,180 2,082 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 :
: 714 468 36 0 -1 75 646 -1 23 23 89 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.4 34.8 8.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 37.0 1.5 3.8 5.6 9.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 87 :
: 24 11 6 0 0 4 26 5 13 10 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower again on currency concerns and prices are still holding the trading range. However, it was a weak close on Friday and more selling is possible this week. The Brazil harvest is getting close to done now. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by the current drought that could hurt production even more. Many areas are dry now, but showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest. Selling will likely increase this week as the Lunar New Year holiday is now over. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season. Producers and the industry are enjoying the Tet holiday this week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.479 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 102.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely today. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 102.00, 100.00, and 99.00 March, and resistance is at 107.00, 110.00 and 112.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1600, 1650, and 1670 March. Support is at 1530, 1510, and 1500 March, and resistance is at 1570, 1590, and 1610 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 333,495
: Positions :
: 27,919 90,354 87,686 135,341 120,918 63,623 25,548 314,568 324,506: 18,927 8,990
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 7,819) :
: 3,259 551 4,478 478 3,331 -1,700 -1,382 6,514 6,978: 1,305 841
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 27.1 26.3 40.6 36.3 19.1 7.7 94.3 97.3: 5.7 2.7
: Total Traders: 468 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 116 137 141 116 44 24 397 335:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
136,588 77,127 63,980 11,001 4,300 2,792
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.5% 46.8% 8.1% 3.1% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 60 48 15 5 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
8,929 31,173 9,915 2,948 1,495 18,836
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 22.8% 7.3% 2.2% 1.1% 13.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 26 15 11 7 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,039 4,096
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.7% 3.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets moved lower on Friday, but were mixed for the week. London has turned into the weaker market. The weekly charts in both markets show mixed trends and the market appears to be searching for a direction at this time. Petroleum futures strength seems to be helping change the tone in Sugar. Brazil has been using the majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar. Dry conditions continue in northern Brazil and there are frequent rains in Rio Grande do Sul. These weather trends are starting to change as the rains move north into drier areas. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but the next production could be less as farmers might switch to other crops due to low prices for Sugarcane.
Overnight News: Brazil will mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Wednesday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1260, 1250, and 1230 May, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 344.00, 342.00, and 335.00 May. Support is at 344.00, 340.00, and 338.00 May, and resistance is at 349.00, 352.00, and 357.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,073,827
: Positions :
: 80,309 183,626 227,564 375,969 525,165 297,763 64,016 981,606 1,000,371: 92,221 73,456
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 34,578) :
: 1,320 9,082 18,522 3,178 245 2,742 6,107 25,763 33,956: 8,815 622
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.5 17.1 21.2 35.0 48.9 27.7 6.0 91.4 93.2: 8.6 6.8
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 46 67 78 80 77 34 23 210 201:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
89,127 41,308 65,353 13,847 994 231
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.3% 73.3% 15.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 55 51 10 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,283 7,532 7,509 2,840 869 3,638
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.1% 8.5% 8.4% 3.2% 1.0% 4.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 9 16 8 6 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,471 3,001
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as the fund and technically related buying appeared to be done. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are strong. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, it is warmer now and mostly dry. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.741 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2160, and 2150 March, with resistance at 2250, 2280, and 2300 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1650 March, with resistance at 1720, 1730, and 1740 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 08, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 298,067
: Positions :
: 41,200 40,989 63,657 112,753 161,690 66,166 20,632 283,777 286,969: 14,290 11,099
: Changes from: December 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 8,036) :
: 3,341 -1,297 4,224 -1,829 4,396 1,742 4 7,478 7,326: 557 709
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 13.8 21.4 37.8 54.2 22.2 6.9 95.2 96.3: 4.8 3.7
: Total Traders: 218 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 60 72 44 45 34 15 182 158:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 02/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
332,533 183,602 208,868 35,156 9,877 23,130
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.2% 62.8% 10.6% 3.0% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 55 43 14 13 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,591 26,527 26,623 4,239 607 33,323
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 1.3% 0.2% 10.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 15 15 11 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,869 3,578
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.1%