Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher at midday. Ethanol production for the week of Feb 2 was shown at 1.057 million barrels per day in this morning’s EIA report. That is 17,000 bpd larger than the previous week. Stocks of ethanol were also reported higher at 23.489 million barrels, 444,000 barrels larger than the week prior. Analysts are expecting Thursday’s Export Sales report to show 1.3-1.8 MMT in old crop corn sales for the week that ended Feb 1, with 0-100,000 MT seen for new crop. On Wednesday, Taiwan purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for April-May delivery. South Korea also passed on offers for 165,000 MT of optional origin corn, noting too high of prices.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.65 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.72 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.80 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.86 3/4, up 1 cent

Soybean futures are showing steady to 1 1/4 cents higher trade on Wednesday. Meal futures are up $4.20/ton, with nearby soy oil 38 points lower. Meal is higher on concerns that Argentine soy meal exports will be hurt by the dryness. The average trade guess ahead of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday is 400,000-700,000 MT for old crop soybean sales. This comes after a disappointing 359,014 MT was report in last week’s report. There is also 0-100,000 MT expected for new crop sales. Soy meal sales are seen at 150,000-450,000 MT, with 8,000-35,000 MT projected in soy oil sales. Thursday’s monthly WASDE report is expected to show world ending stocks trimmed slightly to 98.3 MMT, as production is seen lower. A separate Reuters survey shows traders expecting the final 17/18 Brazilian production number to total 112.6 MMT, up from 110.2 MMT in January.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.87 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.98 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.08, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.10, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $335.90, up $4.20

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.78, down $0.38

Wheat futures are sharply higher in the CBT and KC contracts at Wednesday’s Midday, with the front months up 12 to 14 1/2 cents. MPLS is weaker, but still 3-5 cents higher. Forecasts for continued dryness in the Southern Plains are providing support. All wheat export sales are expected to be tallied at 200,000-500,000 MT in tomorrow’s USDA report. World ending stocks are expected to see a slight reduction in Thursday’s USDA report, with the average trade guess 0.22 MMT below January at 267.8 MMT. Russian customs data shows that 33.026 MMT of wheat was exported during 2017, a jump of 30.4% from 2016.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.60 3/4, up 14 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.81 1/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.12 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with nearby Feb down a nickel and back months higher. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed with front months 22.5-65 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 17 cents on February 5 at $147.95. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.02 at $209.45, with Select boxes 78 cents higher at $203.51. Estimated FI week to date cattle slaughter was 230,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 4,000 from the previous week but 8,000 head larger than the same week last year. This morning’s FCE online auction saw 148 of the 829 head sold at an average price of $126. US export data shows 260.83 million pounds of beef was exported during December. That was slightly larger than November and the fifth straight monthly record, 2.5% above December 2016. Total exports in 2017 were 2.862 billion pounds, an all time yearly record and up 12.2% from 2016.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $125.575, down $0.050,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $123.850, down $0.725,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $115.500, down $0.325,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.175, down $0.550

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.775, down $0.650

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.900, down $0.225

Lean hog futures are mostly 50 cents to $1.95 lower on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 5 was at $74.84, up 36 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 43 cents higher at $78.66 in the Wednesday AM report. The ham was the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 22 cents at $72.38 this morning. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 927,000 through Tuesday. That is down 6,000 head from the previous week and 43,000 head more than the same time last year. Exports of pork during December totaled 514.317 million pounds, a record for that month but 2.9% lower than November. During 2017, the US shipped 5.632 billion pounds of pork, up 5.9% from 2016 and an all time yearly record.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $74.250, down $0.500,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $69.475, down $1.950

May 18 Hogs are at $75.400, down $1.700

Cotton futures are mixed at midday, with nearby March down 11 points and deferred contracts slightly higher. The US dollar is sharply higher at the moment, showing little affect on the market. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP, currently at 71.35 cents/lb, will be updated on Thursday afternoon. The Cotlook A index on February 6 was 87.20 cents/lb, down 90 points from the previous day. Online cash sales reported on the Seam were shown at 7,640 bales, with price averaging 70.69 cents/lb, down 20 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 76.08, down 11 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 77.42, up 4 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 78.4, up 3 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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