Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1 to 2 cents lower in most nearby contracts. A report overnight shows that China canceled around 4 cargoes of US corn in January, as they look to source non-GMO corn for processing. They switched those cargoes to Ukraine origin, a country that does not use GMOs. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed export shipments for the week of Feb 1of 961,200 MT. Along with increasing expected exports 125 million bushels in the WASDE report, the USDA also raised the range for the cash average price to $3.05-3.55, with a mid-point 5 cents higher @$3.30. Thanks to the 3 MMT reduction in Argentine corn production, the US and Brazil’s exports were both raised. South Korea purchased 202,000 MT of corn on Friday, with the origin likely the US or South America.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.64, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.71 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.79, down 2 cents

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.85 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are mostly 6 to 7 cents lower on Friday, on reports of showers across Argentina. Meal futures are down 80 cents/ton, with nearby soy oil 5 points in the red. The USDA reported 1.537 MMT in soybean exports during the week of 2/1. That was a jump of 26% from the previous week but 1.9% lower than the same week in 2017. Thursday morning’s WASDE report showed the USDA narrowing the US cash average farm price by 20 cents to $8.90-9.70, leaving the mid-point at $9.30. With the Brazil crop 2 MMT higher, their respective export projection was raised by the USDA to 69 MMT. The reduction in Argentine production caused their crush total to be trimmed 1.16 MMT, which gave the US bean meal market a boost. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange now estimates the crop at 50 MMT, down 1 from their previous report.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.81 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.92 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.01 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.03 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $340.90, down $0.80

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.16, down $0.05

Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. All wheat shipments were reported at 467,829 MT in Thursday’s Export Sales report. The USDA cash average farm price range for wheat was trimmed 10 cents to $4.55-$4.65, with the mid-point left at $4.60. China’s domestic use was increased 1MMT in Thursday’s WASDE, with Russian exports also up 1 MMT to 36 MMT. Most of the US loss in exports was gained by Canada, up 500,000 MT. Egypt’s GASC purchased 360,000 MT of wheat in their recent tender on Friday, with 4 cargoes sourced from Russian and 2 from Romania.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.49 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.66 1/2, down 8 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.07 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are mostly lower in the back months on Friday, as nearby Feb is up a quarter. Feeder cattle futures are down $1.125 to $1.40 in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 8 cents on February 7 at $148.02. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down $2.03 at $206.50, with Select boxes 76 cents lower at $203.03. The Ch/Se spread had narrowed down to $3.47. Estimated FI week to date cattle slaughter was 464,000 head through Thursday. That was down 5,000 from the previous week but 15,000 head larger than the same week last year. The USDA reported beef exports during the week of 2/1 at 16,049 MT, 4.53% better than the previous week and 17.75% larger than last year. Cash trade is slow to develop this week with packers showing bids of $126 in most regions at midday.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $126.025, up $0.250,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $123.450, down $0.275,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $115.200, down $0.325,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.850, down $1.400

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $147.275, down $1.375

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $147.800, down $1.125

Lean hog futures are a nickel to 32.5 cents lower on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 7 was at $75.63, up 25 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.60 lower at $75.32 in the Friday AM report. The belly primal was down a sharp $11.05. The national base hog weighted average price was down 15 cents at $69.35 Friday morning. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1,858,000 through Thursday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week but 96,000 head more than the same time last year. Pork export shipments were at a MY high of 24,068 MT last week, up 8.4% from the previous week and 9.1% larger than the same week in 2017.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $73.350, down $0.050,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $69.125, down $0.325

May 18 Hogs are at $74.700, down $0.325

Cotton futures are mostly 31 to 62 points lower in the front months at midday, with pressure being felt from the US dollar. Export shipments of upland cotton during the week of 2/1 were reported at a MY high of 432,463 RB on Thursday. That was 41.75% larger wk/wk but down 4.34% yr/yr. Estimated world ending stocks rose 760,000 bales to 88.55 million bales, as both US and China were increased. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.45 cents/lb this morning, which was down 195 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index on February 8 was 86.70 cents/lb, down 25 points from the previous day.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 76, down 62 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 77.21, down 35 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 78.19, down 31 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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